Big news! The Cook Political Report has changed this race from “likely D” to “lean D.” Here’s the analysis from the folks at Cook…
RI-01 OPEN (Kennedy) Likely D to Lean D
Sure enough, Providence Mayor David Cicilline was able to win the mid-September Democratic primary to succeed retiring Rep. Patrick Kennedy, but it came at a bit of a cost. In the run-up to the primary, Cicilline was forced to acknowledge that the city had improperly given him pay raises as mayor between 2006 and 2009, and rival businessman Anthony Gemma even called on the DCCC to ask Cicilline to end his campaign. Cicilline won the primary with 37 percent of the vote, not a terribly impressive showing for the one candidate in the race with universal name ID and a big financial edge.
Meanwhile, GOP state Rep. John Loughlin points out that a Providence Mayor has never been elected to Congress, and Loughlin has been able to stockpile his resources for the general election. By the numbers, this may be the most Democratic seat currently on Republicans’ target list, and both national parties may be hesitant to get involved, but local Democrats admit that this will be the most competitive House race Rhode Island has seen in over a decade. Cicilline leads in early polling and still has an advantage, but it’s a legitimate race.

